Oh No They Didn't!: ONTD’s Oscar Post, week 2 Published by Admin. - - This post haved 0 comments

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ONTD's Oscar Post, week 2 Oct 31st 2011, 23:55 Halloween Edition On January 24th 2012, the nominations will be announced for the 84th Academy Awards. This year, we'll try to do our own coverage of the changes from week to week, doing averages based on the opinions of Oscar bloggers around the web, looking into the gossip, rumors and smear campaigns that will start popping out soon enough, to come up with the names that are most likely to get the coveted nominations (last week's post here. This week, it's the calm before the storm – no bombastic developments and only a few minor changes. We'll be commenting on those and introducing our Oscar News round-up feature at the end of the post. Best Picture . . by casualfriday20 In terms of Best Picture, not much has changed in the past week. The Descendants,The Artist, and The Help look the most likely, while War Horse certainly sounds like a sure bet as well. There was a screening of Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, with mostly positive reactions and people describing it as a huge tearjerker. Additionally, Clint Eastwood has also held a screening of J. Edgar and now the buzz has shifted to mostly positive, with a critic describing it as fitting in perfectly with Clint's legacy. Whether that means the film is akin to Invictus, with only two acting nominations, or Million Dollar Baby, the awards juggernaut, will have to wait until the film premieres at the AFI Festival in a few days. Midnight in Paris, Moneyball (whose buzz is dying fast), The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and Tree of Life are still in the race. CURRENT PREDICTIONS: The Descendants , The Artist, The Help, Midnight in Paris, War Horse, J. Edgar, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Moneyball. ALMOST THERE: Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Tree of Life. Best Director by casualfriday20 Again, not much appears to have changed in the Best Director race. With the positive reactions at the Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close screening, Stephen Daldry looks likely to score his fourth consecutive directing nomination. Alexander Payne, Steven Spielberg, and Michel Hazanavicius also look like likely nominations, leaving David Fincher, Clint Eastwood, Woody Allen, and Terrence Malick to battle for the last spot. It's worth noting that Woody Allen has been nominated for directing six times, four of which have been without the accompanying Best Picture nomination. CURRENT PREDICTIONS: Alexander Payne, The Descendants ; Steven Spielberg, War Horse; Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. ALMOST THERE: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar; Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life. Best Actress The biggest change so far has been the plunge Tilda Swinton took, dropping off most pundits lists after being eclipsed by new PR showings from both seasoned veterans and celebrated up-and-comers – the trifecta of Jones, Mara and Olsen all benefitted from good press this week, with Elizabeth Olsen taking the lead as far as momentum goes. Right now, the actress certainly has an edge, though the divisive reviews for MMMM could hurt her chances in the long run. In other news, Viola Davis seems to have solidified her position as early frontrunner after giving poised, thoughtful speeches at early industry events. It seems silly to take this in consideration, but it's the sort of thing that does ultimately influence perception on a contender. CURRENT PREDICTIONS: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady (The Weinstein Company); Viola Davis, The Help (Disney); Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs (Roadside Attractions); Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn (The Weinstein Company); Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene (Fox Searchlight Pictures). ALMOST THERE: Rooney Mara, The Girl with the dragon tattoo; Charlize Theron, Young Adult; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin. Best Supporting Actress Jessica Chastain's prolific year seems to be catching up to her – even though there are whispers about her having decided to concentrate on her beautiful performance in The Tree of Life for awards consideration, she lost ground this week to Berenice Bejo, from The Artist. In other developments, Vulture seems to think Vanessa Redgrave's spot depends on whether or not her movie manages to gather buzz (it doesn't, tbh), and finally, while we're still not convinced this isn't pure wishful thinking from the experts, it really seems like Universal will give the whole "Melissa McCarthy deserves a nom" thing an honest try. We love her and all, but really? CURRENT PREDICTIONS: Octavia Spencer, The Help (Disney); Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus (The Weinstein Company); Shailene Woodley, The Descendants (Fox Searchlight); Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids (Universal), Berenice Bejo, The Artist (The Weinstein Company). ALMOST THERE:Janet Mcteer,Albert Nobbs; Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life; Judi Dench, J. Edgar. Best Actor by bulimia Surefire nominees for Best Actor remain the same: George Clooney for his "career best" turn in The Descendants, and French charmer and Cannes winner, Jean Dujardin as a silent film actor on a downward turn in The Artist. Though many cite his level of English as a hurdle, "rusty" English speaker Dujardin is still fully capable of garnering smiles and chuckles from the crowd, as seen at the Hollywood Film Awards . So far, Brad Pitt in Moneyball seems in a solid position even if hype for the film itself is quiet. Pitt has had a good year with the critical success of The Tree of Life; and Moneyball is the more accessible film to reward him with. Still unseen, but the internet is quietly abuzz with positive murmurs, Leonardo DiCaprio in what is Oscar Bait to the truest definition (Biopic + Clint Eastwood + supposedly "overdue" actor = !!!). Expect a flood of reviews in the coming week with the world premiere and Centrepiece Gala on Nov. 3 at the AFI fest, six days before US release. In the past week, prognosticators have been shuffling around the fifth spot, with a few sites (IndieWire, THR, Vulture etc.) actually swapping out Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy's Gary Oldman for NC-17 and proud Michael Fassbender of Shame. US release still pending, one will have to wait and see which will produce the most buzz (my money is on Shame, looking at Fox Searchlight's already vigourous campaign) but do not in any way count out Oldman as the "British Bloc" are sure to rally behind him considering the Box Office success of TTSS in the UK (it's going to be a big player with the BAFTAs). Also looking good we have Woody Harrelson in Rampart which now has an Oscar qualifying November 23 week long run. Other dark horse candidates include Ryan Gosling (sure to be overlooked once again, sigh), Michael Shannon (c'mon SPC!), Joseph Gordon Levitt and Michael Fassbender in every other leading role he's had this year. CURRENT PREDICTIONS: George Clooney, The Descendants (Fox Searchlight); Brad Pitt, Moneyball (Columbia Pictures); Jean Dujardin, The Artist (The Weinstein Company); Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar (Warner Bros. Pictures); Michael Fassbender, Shame (Fox Searchlight). ALMOST THERE: Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March; Woody Harrelson, Rampart. Best Supporting Actor by bulimia Of all the acting categories, best supporting actor seems to be the most fluid, currently dominated by veterans. Christopher Plummer in Beginners is the front runner for a nomination, as an aging and dying father who comes out of the closet. Next in line we have Albert Brooks playing against type in Drive; Olivier look-a-like Kenneth Branagh in My Week with Marilyn (but there have been mentions of him being miscast). Rounding out the category we have Jim Broadbent in the still unseen The Iron Lady (Weinstein seems to be going for the last minute blow) and acting god Max von Sydow as the mute grandfather to precocious Thomas Horn, in Extremely Loud and Up Close. Still in contention is Nick Nolte in Warrior; Jonah Hill in Moneyball (lol), John Hawkes in Martha Marcy May Marlene (please please please); George Clooney in The Ides of March (his contribution to film will only help him in the lead actor race), Philip Seymour Hoffman doing Philip Seymour Hoffman (Ides & Moneyball); Armie Hammer in J. Edgar, Tom Hanks in Extremely Loud (God, save us all), Ezra Miller in We Need to Talk About Kevin and finally, Viggo Mortensen in a Dangeous Method. Mortensen has received many positive notices despite lukewarm reactions to the film itself. ***Over the last few days, Sony Picture Classics published their FYCs , so, expect some murmurings for Corey Stoll, in Midgnight in Paris, who received many positive mentions for his turn as Hemingway; and a strong push for Christoph Waltz in Carnage. Waltz is by far the best reviewed of the cast, and is wisely being campaigned in the more open supporting category, as are the rest of his co-stars (leading actor and actress categories will be hard to crack at this point). Waltz has a good shot at the two-years-after-win-oscar-nomination with Carnage's December release date and good reviews for his performance. CURRENT PREDICTIONS: Christopher Plummer, Beginners (Olympus Pictures/Focus Features); Albert Brooks, Drive (FilmDistrict); Kenneth Branagh, My week with Marilyn (The Weinstein Company); Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady (The Weinstein Company); Max Von Sydow, Extremely loud and incredibly close (Paramount Pictures). ALMOST THERE: Nick Nolte, Warrior; Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March. . . ____________________________________________________________ . Oscar News Round-Up The memorable quick links for the week in Awards coverage. • First, this very interesting article on the Screenwriting prospects right now, which brings up a certain rumor at the end: (…) a movement is afoot among some influential members of the directors' branch to recalibrate the number of directing nominees, starting next year, so that it will always match the number of best picture nominees. (Sigh, a sea of never ending change.) • Meanwhile, in his most current column, Mark Harris makes the point that if he were to work the Awards circuit, Ryan Gosling should probably do so in favor of Drive, not The Ides of March. • Shifting Buzz for Eastwood's latest - old guy fawns all over the movie. • As discussed previously here this week, The Oscars to add some ridiculous suspense to the nomination announcement. • Steven Spielberg, Charlize Theron and Woody Harrelson all get pushes in the form of big profiles from the New York Times. • The LA Times throws shade at the Williams-Phillips red carpet partnership in Busy Philipps: Michelle Williams' Oscar blessing or curse? • Another contender in the acting race, Shailene Woodley, benefiting from the good reception The Descendants is getting all around, gets the appropriate vanity profiles, but apparently fails to impress actual Academy members - Vulture mentioned Woodley's Oscar buzz to an awards voter who was very taken with The Descendants, and he replied, "Really? I mean, ehhh." (lol) • The Iron Lady: Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher? Unbeatable, according to Vanity Fair. The movie is also set to get its premiere in China, for some reason. • Article about the Academy's Chief Executive, Dawn Hudson, touching on the diversity (or lack of) in the institution, the changes and struggles the organization faces. • And finally, coverage on the Hollywood Awards: the speeches, behind the scenes and gossip on the event. . until next week, when we'll start covering the Screenplay category. Sources: Us, 1, 2, 3

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